RUSSIAN-UKRAINE WAR: SUMMARY & COMPILATION OF BEST ANALYSIS
As most of you already know, Russia recently invaded Ukraine from multiple directions, trying to take over the whole country, and creating a potential WW3 disaster.
But how did this all start? Who are the different parties? And how can it end?
It probably started way back in the Cold War between the Western powers and the USSR, and after the dissolution of the USSR, many of the former countries of the USSR (Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) near the Russian border started to join NATO and the EU, which started to make Russia worried.
Afraid that Georgia might be next, Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, under the pretext of supporting South Ossetia (a pro-Russian breakaway state in Georgia), as a warning to them not to get too close to the West.
Without going back to the whole Cold War era, the current conflict can be traced back to 2014 when Ukraine held protests to oust the current government (which was more pro-Russia), and replaced it with the current government (more pro-EU and NATO).
Ukraine is a huge country, made out of many ethnic groups, but mainly the East is more pro-Russian (in terms of language of culture), as compared to the West which is more liberal and speaks Ukrainian. Note that this does not mean the East wants to merge with Russia, it’s just that they have more common roots.
When this change of government happened (still in 2014), Russia (or rather Putin), was worried that this might lead to Ukraine being closer to the West (US, EU, NATO), which Putin considers as enemies from the Cold War era, so to prevent that from happening, he decided to invade Ukraine starting with the more “pro-Russian” territories (Crimea, Donbas area which includes Donetsk and Luhansk).
It is not clear exactly whether the people in these regions really want to be part of Russia. My guess is that a certain portion of them do, which Russia took advantage of, using propaganda to stoke separatist sentiments, while sending people and troops to catalyse conflict.
Crimea was quickly taken over via convert operations, whereas the war in Donbas has been ongoing since 2014, with the Ukrainian government armies (and volunteers) fighting against separatists and Russian military. (Although Russia does not admit that they are sending in troops to support the conflict.) This war has been going on at the East edge of Ukraine since 2014, claiming an estimated 10,000 lives so far.
With this ongoing war, it is no surprise Ukraine wants to join the EU and NATO to protect itself from Russia, but the closer they get to the West, the more Russia gets agitated, till Putin finally decided to go for an all-out invasion of the whole country.
How will things likely play out?
It is hard to see how this can end, since Putin (and his small closed circle) controls all the power, so protests within Russia can be quelled by force.
Sanctions and isolation will topple their economy, but will it push Putin to more desperate measures? Will Russia become another North Korea? Even if Russia manages to crush Ukraine and take over the country, will they be able to hold it? And at what cost? It will be a pyrrhic victory at the expense of their own country.
My guess is Russia doesn’t intend to hold Ukraine, and just wants to wreck the country and teach it a lesson, to scare them from joining the West (EU, NATO), and also to serve as a warning to other countries nearby who plan to do so.
This means once they have gained control of the main parts of the country, they will use it as leverage to negotiate a peace treaty which involves giving Russia some of Ukraine territories (and also officially recognising Crimea and Donbas as part of Russia), and include a clause that Ukraine will never join EU and NATO. Alternatively, Russia might plan to install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine, and indirectly rule the Ukrainian people by force.
As long as the West does not intervene directly, Russia will most likely win the war by sheer numerical superiority, and Russia can get what it wants, but the price is heavy (Russian economy), and leaves generations of Ukrainians (and most of the world) hating Russia.
Now that I have shared my view of the whole situation, do you agree with it, and what do you think will happen next?
Let me know in the comments below.
Original article: https://synapsetrading.com/russian-ukraine-war-analysis/